MR. PLOSSER
That 's a seismic event , -LSB- laughter -RSB- given the stability of that number over the past eight years .
MR. PLOSSER
According to our March survey , manufacturing activity in our region remained flat , and we 've seen little change in this activity in the last six months .
MR. LOCKHART
-LSB- Laughter -RSB- Having said that , I prefer that we reduce the federal funds rate target 25 basis points .
MR. MADIGAN
The central tendency for the unemployment rate at the end of the year revised up 0.2 percentage point .
MR. MADIGAN
52 , MR. MADIGAN. , `` 2 I will be referring to the table in the package labeled `` Material for FOMC Briefing on September Trial-Run Projections . ''
MS. MINEHAN
Whether that means that the Monetary Policy Report is a Committee report , not the Chairman 's report , is an obvious next question , and I do n't have the answer to that .
MR. REINHART
At the inaugural of the age of statements in 1994 , the Committee formally directed the Chairman to explain its policy action .
MR. ROSENGREN
Second , the 70 percent confidence interval for the Greenbook projection of GDP , using historical forecast errors , has a negative lower bound .
MR. HOENIG
I think it might be helpful for the Board 's staff to provide information on some of the conditioning assumptions they use in the Greenbook as a starting point for Committee members ' forecasts .
MR. LOCKHART
That said , most contacts acknowledge that tighter credit standards have not significantly affected business capital investment outlays .
MR. MISHKIN
When you make clear the uncertainty , you make it easier for people to understand why there 's a diversity of views in this Committee .
MS. YELLEN
With regard to inflation , I expect core PCE inflation to remain around 1 3/4 percent over the next several years .
VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER
I 'm in favor of exploring a narrative that describes the story of the Committee 's central tendency about the outlook .
CHAIRMAN BERNANKE
390 , CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. , There 's research at the St. Louis Bank that says that the FOMC forecasts are actually pretty good .
MR. STERN
You pointed out yesterday , Mr. Chairman , that an important ingredient in the Greenbook forecast is a cessation of the drag from housing roughly around the middle of next year .
MS. PIANALTO
I have no objection to delegating the release of a minutes-style description of the Committee 's forecast discussion to the Chairman , subject to some consultation with meeting participants in the drafting process .
MR. LOCKHART
The only significant difference is the declining path of inflation in the Greenbook versus our inflation forecast that holds steady around 2.3 percent for the forecast period .
MR. STERN
As far as the national economy is concerned , I agree with the Greenbook 's assessment of the incoming information that we received since the last Committee meeting .
MS. MINEHAN
-LSB- Laughter -RSB- The incoming data since the last Committee meeting contained some pluses and minuses that , by and large , offset one another .
MR. MADIGAN
10 , MR. MADIGAN. , `` 2 I will be referring to the package labeled `` Material for FOMC Briefing on October Projections . ''
MR. REIFSCHNEIDER
Finally , you could adopt an intermediate position and produce 4 Material used by Mr. Reifschneider , Mr. Doyle , and Mr. Reinhart is appended to this transcript -LRB- appendix 4 -RRB- .
MR. LOCKHART
The Atlanta Fed staff forecasts for real GDP growth are consistent with these optimistic commercial forecasts .
MS. JOHNSON
These considerations led us to revise upward the average oil import price in the Greenbook for the current quarter about $ 6.50 per barrel .
MR. PLOSSER
Housing construction and sales continue to decline , but the pace of that decline is in line with the expectations at the time of our last meeting .
MR. FISHER
So I would beg the Committee to consider what we 're talking about when we 're talking about the public and the markets and whether this is a compelling thing that needs to be done now .
MR. FISHER
400 , MR. FISHER. , '' Mr. Chairman , we talked briefly about the Norges Bank and Norway , which is a country of 4.6 million people , a constitutional monarchy , and my mother 's homeland .
MR. FISHER
Mr. Chairman , those are my three concerns , and I 'll spare you my answers to the eight questions , which I hope I 'll have a chance to give at a later date . ''
MR. DUDLEY
Nevertheless , the potential gap between market expectations and the Committee 's interest rate expectations may pose a bit of a conundrum for the Committee .
MR. DUDLEY
On a housekeeping note , I wish to bring to the Committee 's attention the changes to the `` Morning Call '' with the Trading Desk .
MR. STERN
I do n't view the recent news on inflation as especially favorable , but I do n't find it overly alarming either .
MR. STOCKTON
Consumer sentiment remains depressed relative to overall economic conditions , perhaps because of worries about financial developments .
MR. BARRON
The Committee has for some time now made routine references to the outlook in the statement , without an explicit Committee forecast .
MR. LOCKHART
They attribute their negative sales experience to rising defaults among subprime borrowers and higher rates .
MR. EVANS
That seems different from alternative C and alternative A , and also the October statement , at least in the balance of risk , mentioned downside risks to growth .
MS. YELLEN
Surveys suggest that market participants attach a very high priority to improved information concerning the Committee 's outlook for the economy and monetary policy .
MS. YELLEN
I thought Vice Chairman Geithner 's summary really is an excellent template of the form that such a submission could take .
MR. STOCKTON
56 , MR. STOCKTON. , '' In the forecast , in fact , we do square the labor market with our forecast of weak GDP with basically flat labor productivity .
MR. MOSKOW
Importantly , tight labor markets and lower energy prices are boosting consumer spending .
MR. MOSKOW
120 , MR. MOSKOW. , '' Some day we 'll have the Super Bowl at the Seventh Federal Reserve District .
MR. REINHART
This smaller expected increase may partly reflect the stronger outlook for GDP growth suggested by many of your projections .